Oscar Predictions 2026

Picture: One Battle After Another
Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
Actor: Michael B. Jordan
Actress: Jessie Buckley
Supp. Actor: Sean Penn
Supp. Actress: Amy Madigan
Ad. Screenplay: Sinners
Or. Screenplay: One Battle After Another
Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters
International: Sentimental Value
Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor
Documentary Short: All the Empty Rooms
Short Film: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Animated Short: Butterfly
Score: Sinners
Song: Golden / KPop Demon Hunters
Sound: F1
Casting: Sinners
Production Design: Frankenstein
Cinematography: One Battle After Another
Makeup & Hair: Frankenstein
Costumes: Frankenstein
Editing: One Battle After Another
Visual FX: Avatar - Fire and Ash

Oscar Prediction Results 2025

 17/23 Total. 7/8 majors, 9/12 non-majors/non-shorts, 1/3 shorts.

By Year for Reference (out of 24 pre-2021):

2025 - 17 (73.9%)

2024 - 18 (78.3%)

2023 - 19 (82.6%)

2022 - 17 (73.9%)

2021 - 17 (73.9%)

2020 - 20 (83.3%)

2019 - 17 (70.8%)

2018 - 21 (87.5%)

2017 - 15 (62.5%)

2016 - 17 (70.8%)

2015 - 20 (83.3%)

2014 - 23 (95.8%)

2013 - 19 (79.2%)

2012 - 18 (75.0%)

2011 - 15 (62.5%)

2010 - 15 (62.5%)

2009 - 18 (75.0%)

2008 - 15 (62.5%)

2007 - 14 (58.3%)

2006 - 17 (70.8%)

2005 - 18 (75.0%)

2004 - 18 (75.0%)

Oscar Predictions 2025

Picture: Anora
Director: Sean Baker
Actor: Timothée Chalamet
Actress: Mikey Madison
Supp. Actor: Kieran Culkin
Supp. Actress: Zoe Saldaña
Ad. Screenplay: Conclave
Or. Screenplay: Anora
Cinematography: The Brutalist
Costumes: Wicked
Editing: Conclave
Makeup: The Substance
Production Design:
Visual FX: Dune Part 2
Score: The Brutalist
Song: El Mal
Sound: Wicked
Animated Feature: Flow
International: I'm Still Here
Documentary Feature: No Other Land
Animated Short: Yuck!
Documentary Short: The Only Girl In The Orchestra
Short Film: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Oscar Prediction Results 2024

18/23 Total. 6/8 majors, 10/12 non-majors/non-shorts, 2/3 shorts.

By Year for Reference (out of 24 pre-2021):

2024 - 18 (78.3%)

2023 - 19 (82.6%)

2022 - 17 (73.9%)

2021 - 17 (73.9%)

2020 - 20 (83.3%)

2019 - 17 (70.8%)

2018 - 21 (87.5%)

2017 - 15 (62.5%)

2016 - 17 (70.8%)

2015 - 20 (83.3%)

2014 - 23 (95.8%)

2013 - 19 (79.2%)

2012 - 18 (75.0%)

2011 - 15 (62.5%)

2010 - 15 (62.5%)

2009 - 18 (75.0%)

2008 - 15 (62.5%)

2007 - 14 (58.3%)

2006 - 17 (70.8%)

2005 - 18 (75.0%)

2004 - 18 (75.0%)

Oscar Predictions 2024

Picture: Oppenheimer
Director: Christopher Nolan
Actor: Cillian Murphy
Actress: Lily Gladstone
Supp. Actor: Robert Downey Jr.
Supp. Actress: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Ad. Screenplay: Oppenheimer
Or. Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall
Cinematography: Oppenheimer
Costumes: Barbie
Editing: Oppenheimer
Makeup: Maestro
Production Design: Poor Things
Visual FX: Godzilla Minus One
Score: Oppenheimer
Song: What Was I Made For
Sound: The Zone of Interest
Animated Feature: The Boy and the Heron
International: The Zone of Interest
Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
Animated Short: Letter to a Pig
Documentary Short: The Last Repair Shop
Short Film: The Wonderful World of Henry Sugar

Oscar Prediction Results 2023

19/23 Total. 8/8 majors, 9/12 non-majors/non-shorts, 2/3 shorts.

By Year for Reference (out of 24 pre-2021):

2023 - 19 (82.6%)

2022 - 17 (73.9%)

2021 - 17 (73.9%)

2020 - 20 (83.3%)

2019 - 17 (70.8%)

2018 - 21 (87.5%)

2017 - 15 (62.5%)

2016 - 17 (70.8%)

2015 - 20 (83.3%)

2014 - 23 (95.8%)

2013 - 19 (79.2%)

2012 - 18 (75.0%)

2011 - 15 (62.5%)

2010 - 15 (62.5%)

2009 - 18 (75.0%)

2008 - 15 (62.5%)

2007 - 14 (58.3%)

2006 - 17 (70.8%)

2005 - 18 (75.0%)

2004 - 18 (75.0%)

Oscar Predictions 2023

Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Director: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinart
Actor: Brendan Fraser
Actress: Michelle Yeoh
Supp. Actor: Ke Huy Quan
Supp. Actress: Jaime Lee Curtis
Ad. Screenplay: Women Talking
Or. Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
Costumes: Elvis
Editing: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Makeup: Elvis
Production Design: Babylon
Visual FX: Avatar: The Way of Water
Score: All Quiet on the Western Front
Song: Naatu Naatu
Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
International: All Quiet on the Western Front
Documentary Feature: Navalny
Animated Short: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
Documentary Short: Stranger at the Gate
Short Film: An Irish Goodbye

Oscar Prediction Results 2022

17/23 Total. 5/8 majors, 10/12 non-majors/non-shorts, 2/3 shorts.

By Year for Reference (out of 24 pre-2021):

2022 - 17
2021 - 17
2020 - 20
2019 - 17
2018 - 21
2017 - 15
2016 - 17
2015 - 20
2014 - 23
2013 - 19
2012 - 18
2011 - 15
2010 - 15
2009 - 18
2008 - 15
2007 - 14
2006 - 17
2005 - 18
2004 - 18

Oscar Predictions 2022

 Picture: Power of the Dog

Director: Jane Campion

Actor: Will Smith

Actress: Penelope Cruz

Supp. Actor: Troy Kotsur

Supp. Actress: Ariana DeBose

Ad. Screenplay: CODA

Or. Screenplay: Licorice Pizza

Cinematography: Power of the Dog

Costumes: Cruella

Editing: Dune

Makeup: Eyes of Tammy Faye

Production Design: Dune

Visual FX: Dune

Score: Dune

Song: No Time to Die

Sound: Dune

Animated Feature: Encanto

International: Drive My Car

Documentary Feature: Flee

Animated Short: Robin Robin

Documentary Short: Queen of Basketball

Short Film: The Long Goodbye

Nintendo E3 Direct Reactions

This is as good a place as any to dump this, but my live notes from the Nintendo E3 Direct just now:

car noises, mk9 confirmed

smash - gazuya? I don't know who that is
Kazuya from Tekken
kirby is undefeatable
6/28 presentation

lis?
life is strange side story?
no, just an animated promo
but hey hey hey
9/10 for true colors
later this year for lis 1/...2?
what is in remastered? (it's 1 & before the storm - not 2)

guardians, ok

worms as a real time shooter?
sidescrolling?
no thanks, though

some vanillaware looking thing

two point campus, ok

20th anniversary donkey kong?
no, monkey ball (the other banana centric franchise)
is it the good ones this time??
yes it is
monkey billiards!
10/5/21

mario party...
n64 boards?
mid game save
10/29/2021
treehouse live later?

metroid prime 4 is not appearing today
new metroid...
metroid 5
not gameplay
samus versus one of the robots from portal
its 2d!
metroid dread
yes please
shades of fusion? pursuit gameplay
timeline.... 10/8/2021
yes'm, thanks
more amiibo
emmi
treehouse live later
also wasn't metroid dread the name of a cancelled metroid from a long time ago? like it was rumored for the ds long time ago?

franchises return...?

oh, just dance
is just dance still coming out on the wii this year?

cruis'n blast - it's back, in pog form

dragon ball z... this is that action-rpg from a few years ago, right? 
I remember them playing it on giant bomb

mario golf
soon, yes, we know
will the adventure mode be better than mario tennis'?
it's not a hard bar to clear
wario: style icon

treehouse live later

monster hunter stories, ok
turn based, that's crazy man
treehouse live later

warioware?
warioware
yes please
2 player, yes please
9/10/2021, cool
treehouse live later

is this a persona
is this what a persona is
guitar shredding
could just be smt?
there's an smt 4 or 5 that was announced like, years ago right
yes, smt 5 - that was in like the switch unveil stream wasn't it? january 2017
I know something about switch games running sub-720p, and brother
it's jack, the star of hit game jack bros
treehouse live later, 11/12/21

25 minutes in, 15 mins left

danganronpa - hey been interested in these, know I'd never finish it on PC, cool
all 3 coming in one
plus a board game with rpg battles, ok, sure
physical exclusive later this year?
ah and individually digitally

fatal frame - a new one or something

shadow drop time? quick hits...
doom eternal dlc
tony hawk 1+2 - looks compromised resolution wise, but runs smooth - 6/25
the strange brigade ... hey didn't I watcha  quick look of this like a few years ago
mario + rabbids 2, as seen the other day... need to like finish rabbids 1... huh, free run (I did not watch the announcement the other day)
advance wars?!? looks like a straight remaster; it is (yes, please) 1+2... 12/3/21, treehouse live

how is everything? good.

last announcement?
(zelda?)

ha - age of calamity DLC; cheeky bastards
zelda riding a motorcycle? oooooooo kay

hi Eiji, whatchu got for me
you know I was thinking about how little there is to the 4 champions as characters (in response to a call to put them in smash) but forgot there was this whole hyrule warriors game fleshing a bunch of that out (I assume it does)

skyward sword hd, yes I am looking forward to it

ah, cute... Zelda game & watch. Includes 3 games... which 3?
zelda, zelda 2, yes.. and?
oooo link's awakening
link's awakening stretched out :/
11/12/21

also lets slip no other packages planned for the anniversary - rip wind waker / twilight princess HD dreams

hey botw2, some new footage, ok
new land? lots of floating islands
new physics toys
flying hyrule castle
2022 - well duh
skies above hyrule, we're gonna see what's up there

so, on my radar:

Mario Golf: Super Rush (6/25)
Tony Hawk 1+2 (6/25)
Life is Strange True Colors (9/10)
Wario Ware Get it Together!(9/10)
Monkey Ball Banana Mania (10/5)
Metroid Dread (10/8)
Mario Party Superstar (10/29)
Zelda Game & Watch (11/12)
Advance Wars 1+2: Re-boot Camp (12/3)
Life is Strange Remastered (this year)
Danganropa (a bunch of them) (this year)
Mario + Rabbids 2 (2022)
Breath of the Wild 2 (2022)

Oscar Prediction Results 2021

17/23 Total. 5/8 majors, 10/12 non-majors/non-shorts, 2/3 shorts.

By Year for Reference (out of 24 pre-2021):

2021 - 17

2020 - 20
2019 - 17
2018 - 21
2017 - 15
2016 - 17
2015 - 20
2014 - 23
2013 - 19
2012 - 18
2011 - 15
2010 - 15
2009 - 18
2008 - 15
2007 - 14
2006 - 17
2005 - 18
2004 - 18

Oscar Predictions 2021

Picture: Nomadland
Director: Chloe Zhao
Actor: Chadwick Boseman
Actress: Viola Davis
Supp. Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
Supp. Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn
Ad. Screenplay: Promising Young Woman
Or. Screenplay: Nomadland
Cinematography: Nomadland
Costumes: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Editing: The Sound of Metal
Makeup: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Production Design: Mank
Visual FX: Tenet
Score: Soul
Song: "Speak Now", One Night in Miami
Sound: The Sound of Metal
Animated Feature: Soul
International: Another Round
Documentary Feature: Octopus Teacher
Animated Short: If Anything Happens I Love You
Documentary Short: A Concerto is a Conversation
Short Film:  Two Distant Strangers

Oscar Prediction Results 2020

20/24 Total. 7/8 majors, 11/13 non-majors/non-shorts, 2/3 shorts.

By Year for Reference (out of 24):

• 2020 - 20
• 2019 - 17
• 2018 - 21
• 2017 - 15
• 2016 - 17
• 2015 - 20
• 2014 - 23
• 2013 - 19
• 2012 - 18
• 2011 - 15
• 2010 - 15
• 2009 - 18
• 2008 - 15
• 2007 - 14
• 2006 - 17
• 2005 - 18
• 2004 - 18

Oscar Predictions 2020

Picture: 1917
Director: Bong Joon Ho
Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
Actress: Renee Zellweger
Supp. Actor: Brad Pitt
Supp. Actress: Laura Dern
Ad. Screenplay: Jojo Rabbit
Or. Screenplay: Parasite
Cinematography: 1917
Costumes: Little Women
Editing: Parasite
Makeup: Bombshell
Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Visual FX: 1917
Score: Joker
Song: (I'm Gonna) Love Myself Again, Rocketman
Sound Mixing: 1917
Sound Editing: 1917
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Foreign Language: Parasite
Documentary Feature: American Factory
Animated Short: Hair Love
Documentary Short: Learning to Skateboard
Short Film: Brotherhood

Oscar Prediction Results 2019

17/24 Total. 5/8 majors, 9/13 non-majors/non-shorts, 3/3 shorts.

By Year for Reference (out of 24):

• 2019 - 17
• 2018 - 21
• 2017 - 15
• 2016 - 17
• 2015 - 20
• 2014 - 23
• 2013 - 19
• 2012 - 18
• 2011 - 15
• 2010 - 15
• 2009 - 18
• 2008 - 15
• 2007 - 14
• 2006 - 17
• 2005 - 18
• 2004 - 18

Oscar Predictions 2019

Picture: Black Panther
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Actor: Rami Malek
Actress: Glenn Close
Supp. Actor: Mahershala Ali
Supp. Actress: Regina King
Ad. Screenplay: BlaKkKlansman
Or. Screenplay: The Favourite
Cinematography: Roma
Costumes: Black Panther
Editing: Vice
Makeup: Vice
Production Design: The Favourite
Visual FX: Avengers: Infinity War
Score: If Beale Street Could Talk
Song: Shallow (A Star Is Born)
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Sound Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse
Foreign Language: Roma
Documentary Feature: Free Solo
Animated Short: Bao
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence.
Short Film: Skin

Oscar Prediction Results 2018

21/24 Total. 8/8 majors, 13/13 non-majors/non-shorts, 0/3 shorts. Fuck Kobe.

By Year for Reference (out of 24):

• 2018 - 21
• 2017 - 15
• 2016 - 17
• 2015 - 20
• 2014 - 23
• 2013 - 19
• 2012 - 18
• 2011 - 15
• 2010 - 15
• 2009 - 18
• 2008 - 15
• 2007 - 14
• 2006 - 17
• 2005 - 18
• 2004 - 18

Oscar Predictions 2018

• Picture: The Shape of Water
• Director: Guirrelmo Del Toro; The Shape of Water
• Actor: Gary Oldman; Darkest Hour
• Actress: Frances McDormand; Three Billboards
• Supp. Actor: Sam Rockwell; Three Billboards
• Supp. Actress: Allison Janney; I, Tonya
• Ad. Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
• Or. Screenplay: Get Out
• Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
• Costumes: Phantom Thread
• Editing: Dunkirk
• Makeup: Darkest Hour
• Production Design: The Shape of Water
• Visual FX: Blade Runner 2049
• Score: The Shape of Water
• Song: Rememeber Me, Coco
• Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
• Sound Editing: Dunkirk
• Animated Feature: Coco
• Foreign Language: A Fantastic Woman
• Documentary Feature: Icarus
• Animated Short: Garden Party
• Documentary Short: Heroin(e)
• Short Film: DeKalb Elementary

Thank you and good night.

Oscar Prediction Results 2017

15/20 Total. 7/8 majors, 7/13 non-majors/non-shorts, 1/3 shorts.

By Year for Reference (out of 24):

• 2017 - 15
• 2016 - 17
• 2015 - 20
• 2014 - 23
• 2013 - 19
• 2012 - 18
• 2011 - 15
• 2010 - 15
• 2009 - 18
• 2008 - 15
• 2007 - 14
• 2006 - 17
• 2005 - 18
• 2004 - 18

Oscar Predictions 2017

• Picture: La La Land
• Director: Damien Chazelle
• Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
• Actress: Emma Stone, La La Land
• Supp. Actor: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
• Supp. Actress: Viola Davis, Fences
• Ad. Screenplay: Moonlight
• Or. Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea
• Cinematography: La La Land
• Costumes: Jackie
• Editing: La La Land
• Makeup: Star Trek Beyond
• Production Design: La La Land
• Visual FX: The Jungle Book
• Score: La La Land
• Song: How Far I'll Go, Moana
• Sound Mixing: La La Land
• Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge
• Animated Feature: Zootopia
• Foreign Language: The Salesman
• Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America
• Animated Short: Piper
• Documentary Short: 4.1 Miles
• Short Film: Ennemis Interierurs

Thank you and good night.